Skip to content
RetireTaxGuide
Guide HomeGetting StartedPlan Setup WizardDashboardCash FlowTax AnalyticsTax PlannerChance of SuccessWhat-If ScenariosWellness ScoreCompareYour Data & Privacy

Screenshots show the built-in sample plan — your numbers will look different, but the layout is the same.

Chance of Success

Monte Carlo simulations and historical backtests — fan charts, trial drill-down, heatmaps, and sparklines.

Monte Carlo tab

Controls band

  • Trials select: 1k, 5k, or 10k paths
  • Block Bootstrap checkbox: Replays real 12-month return blocks instead of parametric draws
  • Run simulation button: Shows "Running..." while in flight
  • Reset button: Clears results

Verdict band (after run)

Three-part grid: donut gauge, verdict callout with icon and prose, outcome categories panel with 5 colored rows.

Three KPI cards

  • Median legacy (indigo): Median ending balance with mean
  • Bad-luck p10 legacy (coral): 1-in-10 downside
  • Good-luck p90 legacy (green): 1-in-10 upside
Monte Carlo percentile fan chart with shaded confidence bands and the ending-legacy histogram below it
The fan chart: shaded 10–90% and 25–75% bands with Top 10%, Top 25%, Median, Bottom 25%, and Bottom 10% lines, plus the dashed green base case and the red y=0 depletion line. Below: the ending-legacy histogram — the red first bar counts paths that ran out.
How to read
Use the trial slider to select a specific trial. Click "Inspect trial" to drill into a year-by-year table with vs-median differences. Click "Distribution view" to exit.

Historical Backtest tab

Four KPI cards

  • Historical success rate: Tinted card with percentage and progress bar
  • Median legacy (real windows): With Mean / p10 / p90
  • Worst/best starting years: With crisis annotations
  • Chance of Success vs Guardrails: Monte Carlo comparison with alignment check
Backtest rolling success chart with green success and red failure bars by start year, plus the annotated failing-start-years list
Each bar is one historical start year — green means the money lasted, red means it ran out. Failures cluster around crises (1929, 1966, 2000, 2007–08), listed with annotations on the right.
Backtest heatmap grid of start year versus plan length with success checkmarks, plus the trial replay table
The heatmap grid: green checkmarks for success, red crosses for failure, dashes where history runs out. Your own plan length is ringed. Below, the trial replay table shows each window's sparkline path, ending balance, drawdown, and result bucket.

Reading the three success numbers

A closing card reconciles the Base case (one straight-line path), Monte Carlo (random futures), and Backtest (real windows). The three should roughly agree — if they diverge, the card explains what that implies. Rule of thumb: at or above 95% you could spend more, around 80% you are on target, near 70% be cautious, below it consider cutting back.

Tax PlannerWhat-If ScenariosDashboard